The Market’s Hopeful Thinking

Introduction . At about 2,900, the S&P 500 is only 15% off its all-time high and down just 10% for the year, but the starting points were arguably lofty levels. At its low, the market fell 35% from its intraday peak of 3,394, which is slightly more than the median… Continue reading

What’s Going On?

Introduction . So much is happening, and quickly. The S&P 500 is down almost 30%, schools and businesses are closing, people are beginning to panic, and the financial markets are not functioning smoothly (stocks and safe assets are both declining). Monetary and fiscal policy are coming to the rescue, but… Continue reading

Economy Caught a Nasty Virus

Introduction . The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 50 bps yesterday in response to coronavirus risks. These risks have real impacts on lives, supply chains, productivity, etc., plus they have psychological impacts on buyer behaviors. Will the rate cuts save the economy? Probably not. Financial liquidity was… Continue reading