This page includes some of my past presentations and videos.
A Conversation on The Economy and Today's Markets
July 2, 2020
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The market’s whiplash-inducing performance over the last four months has been astonishing. Now, as the economy begins to open up again, the financial market has been on a tear. Is the bad news all behind us? What’s in store for the future?
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Listen to a recording of a lively discussion on what has propelled the market to today’s levels, whether these near all-time high valuations are justified, and how investor expectations seem to be shaping up.
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The discussion was moderated by Ted Kellner, Retired Founder and Portfolio Manager of Fiduciary Management, Inc., and features Dr. G. Kevin Spellman, David O. Nicholas Director of Investment Management and Senior Lecturer at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Lubar School of Business. The event was sponsored by University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Alumni Association.
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The slides shown in the discussion are available here.
What is Happening?
Dr. G. Kevin Spellman, CFA
March 27, 2020
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It’s hard to keep up with what is happening with coronavirus, financial markets, the economy, and monetary and fiscal policies. This video attempts to help you make sense of it all.
- Quickest drawdown and bounce since Great Depression
- Unemployment rising to at least 10%?
- GDP in recessions (this one may set the record for the worst quarterly contraction)
- Significant monetary and fiscal policies
- Debt situation (not good and getting worse)
- Coronavirus situation (everyone needs to stay home)
- V, U, or L recovery?
- QE’s possible impact on inflation and what people expect
- What are markets expecting?
- Indicators of a bottoming process
Overcoming Behavioral Biases to Improve Financial Decisions
Dr. G. Kevin Spellman, CFA
March-April 2019
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OvercomingBehavioralBiasestoImproveFinancialDecisions_March-April2019-HOClick here for slides in full-screen view.
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4Q 2018 Strategy Update
Dr. G. Kevin Spellman, CFA
November 2018
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This presentation provides an overview of the economy and financial markets. The current market correction, slowing economy and three end game scenarios, rising volatility, correction in FAANG stocks, rotation to defensives (risk-off), cracks in housing, plunge in oil, the rapid decline in the Big Ticket Index, rising debt concerns, moderately high valuation, inflation trends, and the trade war and more are reviewed.
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The presentation was developed in preparation for my Wisconsin Public Radio interview on November 26. Click play to listen to the interview.
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Click here for slides in full-screen view.
Valuation
Dr. G. Kevin Spellman, CFA
August 2018
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Many people buy, sell, and own securities without really understanding what the price they pay reflects. This presentation shows the theory and empirical evidence behind valuation with a specific focus on using multiples (e.g., P/E).
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This presentation was made to students at multiple universities in 2018.
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The slides, including the appendix, are here.
