Introduction . So much is happening, and quickly. The S&P 500 is down almost 30%, schools and businesses are closing, people are beginning to panic, and the financial markets are not functioning smoothly (stocks and safe assets are both declining). Monetary and fiscal policy are coming to the rescue, but… Continue reading
Introduction . The title of this paper has two questions that may have obvious affirmative answers to many or even most readers, but this paper questions common beliefs. Given media and policy attention on the US-China trade war and how the market seems to react to every bit of news,… Continue reading
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Introduction . The uproar in the US and around the world associated with President Trump pulling out of the Paris Agreement will be felt for some time. The decision may not be entirely rational, so it gives us an opportunity to discuss some of his perhaps – “perhaps” to be… Continue reading
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The Expectations Clock provides a framework for modeling performance, expectations of future performance, and human behaviors during phases of the performance cycle. It is a model of human over- and under-reactions to the environment. Success in investments (and business in general) is highly dependent on effectively forecasting future fundamentals… Continue reading
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Sentiment has risen strongly over the last six months to a high level while earnings growth has accelerated, a perfect environment for the stock market which posted strong gains (up 8.9% over the last six months). Consensus estimates call for earnings growth to continue to accelerate, but sentiment already implies… Continue reading
